Iraq’s First Elections since Islam State Defeat

Iraqis voted in their first parliamentary elections on May 12, 2018, since the government defeated the jihadist Islamic State (IS) in 2017. According to BBC, 7,000 candidates from rival alliances are vying for seats in the 329-member assembly. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called on "all Iraqis" to take part in the elections and cast his ballot in Bagdad.

The competing coalitions are predominantly Shia or Sunni, though the Kurds have their own lists. Although the Shia-led government has won praise for the victory over IS militants, many Iraqis are disillusioned by widespread government corruption and a slow economy.

The current prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, heads the Nasr list, which is likely to get the most votes. But under the Iraqi system he will not be able to form a majority government, and will have to negotiate for a coalition that could go on for months.

The veteran paramilitary commander Hadi al-Amiri heads the Fatah list, which has become the political home of the Shia fighters and supporters of the Hashd. On another front, Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister, captures Mosul and the Sunni territory.

At any rate, the prime-minister-elect will face major challenges of reconstruction, as well as preventing the country from descending back into sectarian civil war. The elections need to produce a government all sects in Iraq can work with. After so many years of bloodshed, suffering and sectarian struggle, the country needs this election to be a turning point.

Many Sunnis are worried about the Hashd fighters and their leader and candidate, Mr Amiri. Having close ties with Shias in Iran, Amiri will make the Iranians, through their friends in the Hashd, the strongest foreign force in Iraq.

Reuters reported that voter turnout appeared low, voter irregularities occurred, and three people were killed in an attack near a polling station in the northern province of Kirkuk, according to local media.

The elections came just days after US President Donald Trump abandoned the Iran nuclear deal on May 8. Some Iraqis fear their country could once again became entangled in any struggle between America and Iran. Could Iran be the real winner? Iran fought hard against the jihadist extremists. Many of Iraq’s recovery efforts are also funded by Iran.

Iraq is fragile and battered since the Americans and their allies invaded in 2003. If the election results on Monday May 14 present an outcome most Iraqis can accept, and a new government then works hard to rebuild, this country may have a chance to assume some stability in the bright scenario.

伊拉克战胜伊斯兰恐怖组织后之首度选举

伊拉克在2017年击败伊斯兰恐怖组织后，首度于2018年5月12日举行国家议会选举。据英国广播公司（ BBC ）的报导、共有 7,000 名候选人组成竞争对手联盟来争取由329 名成员组成的国家议会席位。总理Haidar Abadi 呼吁"所有伊拉克人"参加选举，而他本身也于巴格达投票完成选民义务。

候选的竞争对手联盟主要是由什叶派和逊尼派组成，而库尔德人也有自己的候选名单。虽然什叶派主导的政府因为击败伊斯兰恐怖分子而赢得人民支持，许多伊拉克人还是不满政府的腐败以及经济的衰退。

现任总理Haidar Abadi 为 Nasr 联盟首脑，可能会获得最多选票。但根据伊拉克的系统，他将无法组成一个多数政府，所以必须进行多方谈判，组成议会联盟之务将耗费多时。

资深的军事指挥官Hadi al-Amiri为Fatah联盟首脑，已成为什叶派人士之Hashd战斗人员和支持者的最佳候选对象。另一方面说来，前任总理Nouri al-Maliki则拥有Mosul 和其他逊尼派的领土。

无论如何，当选的新任总理将面临重建国家的重大挑战，并且必须预防宗派重新点燃斗争和分歧的现象。此次选举需要生成一个所有伊拉克教派皆能接受的政府。经过这么多年的流血、痛苦和宗派斗争，伊拉克需要这次选举来创造一个转折点。

许多逊尼派教徒担心Hashd 战士和其领袖兼候选人Hadi al-Amiri与伊朗的什叶派人士有密切关系，而伊朗将将透过Hashd之关系成为伊拉克境内最具影响力的国家。

路透社报道指出，伊拉克此次选举投票率低迷、选民方面也有违规行为的发生，而伊拉克当地媒体也报导北部基尔库克投票站遭受攻击事件，有 3 人被杀害。

伊拉克之选举于美国川普总统在5月8日宣告放弃防止伊朗核武问题数日之后举行。伊拉克人担心他们的国家可能再次成了美国和伊朗之间斗争的受害者。伊朗会成为这次伊拉克选举的真正赢家吗？伊朗针对伊斯兰恐怖组织已打过一场硬战，也资助许多伊拉克重建国家的项目。

自2003年美国和其盟友入侵伊拉克以来，该国已变得极为脆弱和不定。如果5月14日的选举结果能展现一个大多数伊拉克人都可以接受的现象，而一个新的政府也能进一步努力重建国家，也许伊拉克将终能重见些许稳定而明亮的场景。

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